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January 2, 2023 – rdspinvestments

January 2, 2023

Economic weakness set to weigh on oil price in 2023

Economic weakness set to weigh on oil price in 2023© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, U.S., November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant//File Photo

By Brijesh Patel

(Reuters) -Oil prices are set for small gains in 2023 as a darkening global economic backdrop and COVID-19 flare-ups in China threaten demand growth and offset the impact of supply shortfalls caused by sanctions on Russia, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.

A survey of 30 economists and analysts forecast would average $89.37 a barrel in 2023, about 4.6% lower than the $93.65 consensus in a November survey. The global benchmark has averaged $99 per barrel in 2022.

is projected to average $84.84 per barrel in 2023, versus the previous month’s $87.80 consensus.

“We expect the world to slip into recession in early 2023 as the effects of high inflation and rising interest rates are felt,” said Bradley Saunders, assistant economist at Capital Economics.

Brent has fallen more than 15% since early November and was trading around $84 a barrel on Friday as surging COVID-19 cases in China depressed the outlook for oil demand growth in the world’s largest crude oil importer. [O/R]

“The oil market is still tight despite a weakening global demand outlook as recession fears run wild,” said Edward Moya, senior analyst with OANDA, adding that China will be the primary focus in the first quarter of next year.

Most analysts said oil demand will grow significantly in the second half of 2023, driven by the easing of COVID-19 restrictions in China and by central banks adopting a less aggressive approach on interest rates.

The impact of Western sanctions on Russian oil is expected to minimal, the poll showed.

“We do not expect an impact from the price cap, which was designed to give bargaining power to third-country buyers,” analysts at Goldman Sachs (NYSE:) said in a note.

Moscow this week signed a decree that bans the supply of oil and oil products to nations participating in the Group of Seven (G7) price cap from Feb. 1 for five months.

“In the event of a severe drop to Russian exports (which we do not expect to occur), OPEC+ will likely be ready to increase output to prevent prices from rising too high,” data and analytics firm Kpler said.

European shares move up slightly in holiday-impacted trading

Stock Markets 17 hours ago (Jan 02, 2023 02:15AM ET)

European shares move up slightly in holiday-impacted trading© Reuters

By Scott Kanowsky

Investing.com — European stock markets edged slightly higher in thin holiday-hit trading after shares in the region slumped to their worst yearly performance since 2018 last year.

At 03:08 EST (08:08 GMT), the in Germany was 0.53% higher, France’s climbed 0.78%, and the pan-European rose 0.96%. A number of stock markets around the world are closed on Monday in observance of New Year’s Day celebrations, including in the U.K., Switzerland, and the U.S.

Stocks in Europe enter 2023 with a degree of cautious optimism following a difficult trading year that was impacted by soaring inflation, aggressive central bank interest rate hikes, and a surge in geopolitical tensions. However, economic data in the last week of 2022 has fuelled hopes that an expected recession in the region may not be as severe as once feared.

Investors will have more data to digest out of the continent this morning, with Spain, Italy, Switzerland, France, Germany, and the broader Eurozone all due to unveil their latest purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing sector.

The numbers come after data over the weekend showed that factory activity in China sunk for the third straight month in December and at the steepest pace in almost three years. The world’s second-largest economy is reeling from a fresh wave of COVID-19 cases sweeping across the country following the sudden relaxation of strict pandemic restrictions.

China’s dropped to 47.0 from 48.0 in the prior month, according to the National Bureau of Statistics on Saturday, below economists’ forecasts of 48.0 and the largest drop since February 2020. It was also under the 50-point level indicating contraction.

The economic calendar will become busier over the course of the week, highlighted by the release of the report and ‘s December meeting on Wednesday. The Eurozone’s will come out on Friday as well before attention turns to the latest .

In corporate news, shares in Atos SE (EPA:) gained nearly 10% on a media report that European airplane maker Airbus Group SE (EPA:) is in early talks with the French information technology company over taking a minority stake in its Evidian cybersecurity unit.

Additionally, the moved lower against the dollar by 0.25% to $1.0675.

Some in China return to regular activity after COVID infections

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Coronavirus 45 minutes ago (Jan 02, 2023 04:47AM ET)

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Some in China return to regular activity after COVID infections© Reuters. A child walks while people wait with their luggages at a railway station, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in Wuhan, Hubei province, China January 1, 2023. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang

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By Josh Arslan and Norihiko Shirouzu

BEIJING (Reuters) -Some people in China’s key cities of Beijing, Shanghai and Wuhan braved the cold and a spike in COVID-19 infections to return to regular activity on Monday, confident of a boost to the economy as more recover from infections.

Among those who gathered to sled or ice skate on a frozen lake in the capital’s Shichahai Lake Park were some upbeat about the opening-up, after China dropped stringent “zero-COVID” measures on Dec. 7 to adopt a strategy of living with the virus.

However, a wave of infections has since erupted nationwide, after borders had been kept all but shut for three years amid a strict regime of lockdowns and relentless testing.

“After the end of this lockdown, we don’t have to scan the health code any more, nor do we have to check the travel code,” said one of those in the park, Yang, who gave only one name.

“So we are free now.”

Also at the lake was Zhong, a 22-year-old college student, who said he had stayed home for two or three weeks after getting infected.

“Now I can go out and it’s good timing for the New Year’s Day holiday,” he added. “I want to go around in Beijing, have a look and feel the festive mood.”

Monday was a public holiday, but traffic in the capital has built up again in the last few days as people flock to outdoor sites, although business is still slow in some smaller, confined locations, such as restaurants.

The owner of a Beijing seafood restaurant said patrons had not returned to full strength.

“I expect this situation to linger through the Lunar New Year holiday,” said Chen, who gave only his surname. “I am counting on business to be more normal after the holiday.”

In the central city of Wuhan, where the pandemic began three years ago, people were not as anxious any more, a man surnamed Wu told Reuters.

“Work production, life and entertainment are all getting back to normal levels,” added Wu, a tutor at a private training centre.

LUNAR NEW YEAR TRAVEL

China’s biggest holiday, Lunar New Year, begins on Jan 21 this year, when the railway network is expected to carry 5.5 million passengers, state broadcaster CCTV has said.

As expectations for holiday travel grow, authorities at Tibet’s spectacular Potala Palace said it would open for visitors from Jan 3, after shutting last August due to a COVID-19 outbreak.

Some hotels in the southern tourist resort of Sanya are fully booked for Lunar New Year, media have said.

In recent days state media have sought to reassure the public that the COVID-19 outbreak was under control and nearing its peak.

Infections in the cities of Beijing, Guanzhou, Shanghai and Chongqing are close to ending, news outlet Caixin said on Sunday, citing researchers in the Chinese commercial hub.

But infections will peak in the urban regions of Sichuan, Shaanxi, Gansu and Qinghai in the latter half of January, they added.

More than 80% of those living in southwestern Sichuan have been infected, the province’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention has said.

But Monday’s single new COVID death – flat from the previous day – among China’s population of 1.4 billion does not match the experience of other countries after they re-opened.

The official death toll of 5,250 since the pandemic began compares with more than 1 million in the United States. Chinese-ruled Hong Kong, a city of 7.4 million, has reported more than 11,000 deaths.

About 9,000 people in China are probably dying each day from COVID, health data firm Airfinity said last week, while cumulative deaths since Dec. 1 have probably reached 100,000, with infections at 18.6 million.

Airfinity, which is based in Britain, expects China’s COVID cases to reach their first peak on Jan. 13, with 3.7 million daily infections.

China has said it only counts deaths of COVID patients caused by pneumonia and respiratory failure as being related to COVID.

The relatively low death count is also inconsistent with rising demand reported by funeral parlours in several cities.

Anger in Russia as scores of troops killed in one of Ukraine war’s deadliest strikes

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Anger in Russia as scores of troops killed in one of Ukraine war's deadliest strikes© Reuters. Ukrainian servicemen use searchlights as they search for drones in a sky over city during a Russian drones strike, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine January 1, 2023. REUTERS/Gleb Garanich

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By Pavel Polityuk

KYIV (Reuters) – Russia acknowledged on Monday that scores of its troops were killed in one of the Ukraine war’s deadliest strikes, drawing demands from Russian nationalist bloggers for commanders to be punished for housing soldiers alongside an ammunition dump.

Russia’s defence ministry said 63 soldiers had died in the fiery blast which destroyed a temporary barracks in a former vocational college in Makiivka, twin city of the Russian-occupied regional capital of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.

It said the accommodation had been hit by four rockets fired from U.S.-made HIMARS launchers, claiming two rockets had been shot down. Kyiv said the Russian death toll was in the hundreds, though pro-Russian officials called this an exaggeration.

Russian military bloggers said the huge destruction was a result of storing ammunition in the same building as a barracks, despite commanders knowing it was within range of Ukrainian rockets.

Separately, Ukraine said on Monday it had shot down all 39 drones Russia had fired in a third straight night of air strikes against civilian targets in Kyiv and other cities.

Ukrainian officials said their success proved that Russia’s tactic in recent months of raining down air strikes to knock out Ukraine’s energy infrastructure was increasingly a failure as Kyiv beefs up its air defences.

‘EACH MISTAKE HAS A NAME’

Unverified footage posted online of the aftermath of the strike on the Russian barracks in Makiivka showed a huge building reduced to smoking rubble.

Igor Girkin, a former commander of pro-Russian troops in eastern Ukraine who is now one of the highest profile Russian nationalist military bloggers, said hundreds and been killed or wounded in the blast. Ammunition had been stored at the site and military equipment there was uncamouflaged, he said.

Another nationalist blogger, Rybar, said around 70 soldiers were confirmed dead and more than 100 wounded.

“What happened in Makiivka is horrible,” wrote Archangel Spetznaz Z, another Russian military blogger with more than 700,000 followers on Telegram.

“Who came up with the idea to place personnel in large numbers in one building, where even a fool understands that even if they hit with artillery, there will be many wounded or dead?” he wrote. Commanders “couldn’t care less” about ammunition stored in disarray on the battlefield, he said.

The open fury extended to lawmakers.

Grigory Karasin, a member of the Russian Senate and former deputy foreign minister, not only demanded vengeance against Ukraine and its NATO supporters but also “an exacting internal analysis”.

Sergei Mironov, a legislator and former chairman of the Senate, Russia’s upper house, demanded criminal liability for the officials who had “allowed the concentration of military personnel in an unprotected building” and “all the higher authorities who did not provide the proper level of security”.

“Obviously neither intelligence nor counterintelligence nor air defence worked properly,” he said in a post on Telegram.

Russia’s acknowledgement of scores of deaths in one incident was almost without precedent. Moscow rarely releases figures for its casualties, and when it does the figures are typically low – it acknowledged just one death from among a crew of hundreds when Ukraine sank its flagship cruiser Moskva in April.

Russia has seen in the new year with nightly attacks on Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv, hundreds of kilometres from the front lines. This marks a change in tactics after months in which Moscow usually spaced such strikes around a week apart.

After firing dozens of missiles on Dec. 31, Russia launched dozens of Iranian-made Shahed drones on Jan. 1 and Jan. 2. But Kyiv said on Monday it had shot down all 39 drones in the latest wave, including 22 downed over the capital.

Kyiv said the new tactic was a sign of Russia’s desperation as Ukraine’s ability to defend its air space had improved.

“Now they are looking for routes and attempts to hit us somehow, but their terror tactics will not work. Our sky will turn into a shield,” presidential chief of staff Andriy Yermak said on Telegram.

In his nightly speech, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russia’s efforts would prove useless. “Drones, missiles, everything else will not help them,” he said of the Russians. “Because we stand united. They are united only by fear.”

Ukraine’s air defence systems worked through the night to bring down incoming drones and to warn communities of the approaching danger.

Russia has turned to mass air strikes against Ukrainian cities since suffering defeats on the battlefield in the second half of 2022.

It says its attacks, which have knocked out heat and power to millions in winter, aim to reduce Kyiv’s ability to fight. Ukraine says the attacks have no military purpose and are intended to hurt civilians, a war crime.

Russia has flattened Ukrainian cities, killed thousands of civilians and annexed swathes of Ukraine since Putin ordered his invasion last February, calling Ukraine an artificial state whose pro-Western outlook threatened Russia’s security.

Ukraine has fought back with Western military support, driving Russian forces from more than half the territory they seized. In recent weeks, the front lines have been largely static, with thousands of soldiers dying in intense warfare.

Dollar creeps up in subdued start to new year

Dollar creeps up in subdued start to new year© Reuters.

By Dhara Ranasinghe

LONDON (Reuters) -The dollar edged up on Monday, pulling away from recent six-month lows against a basket of major currencies.

The U.S. currency has weakened as markets bet a Federal Reserve tightening cycle may be nearing an end.

Sentiment remained fragile and the first trading day of the year was subdued, with many countries, including big trading centres such as Britain and Japan, closed for a holiday.

The , which measures the value of the greenback against a basket of major currencies, rose by around 0.14% to 103.63 – off roughly six-month lows hit last week at around 103.38.

The euro slipped by about a third of a percent to $1.0683, but was not far from its highest levels since June. Sterling was down 0.35% at $1.2051.

Against the yen, the dollar fell 0.25% to 130.76, having hit its lowest levels since August last month.

“There is an attempt by the dollar index to pull higher today but we do see that it is losing a good part of the strength it gained last year,” Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of forex research at Commerzbank (ETR:), said.

“After the last Fed meeting, the market was not convinced that the Fed won’t cut rates later in 2023. It’s going to be an interesting year.”

Having raised rates by a total of 425 basis points since March to curb surging inflation, the Fed has started to slow the pace of hikes.

That Fed tightening helped lift the dollar index 8% last year in its biggest annual jump since 2015.

Markets remain focused on central banks and inflation, as well as signals of how long and deep a recession might be.

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Sunday that 2023 would be a tough year for the global economy.

Data from China, meanwhile, showed factory activity shrank for the third straight month in December and at the sharpest pace in nearly three years.

But a downturn in euro zone manufacturing activity has likely passed its trough as supply chains recover and inflationary pressures ease, a survey showed on Monday.

S&P Global (NYSE:)’s final manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index bounced to 47.8 in December from November’s 47.1, matching a preliminary reading but still below the 50 mark separating growth from contraction.

While the euro area economy is heading for a recession, concerns about gas supply over the winter have eased, meaning a downturn may not be as bad as feared a few months ago.

Euro zone wages are growing quicker than thought and the European Central Bank (ECB) must prevent this from adding to already high inflation, ECB chief Christine Lagarde said at the weekend.

“The recent euro strength is driven by a mix of things including both the hawkish ECB commentary and hopes of a peak in U.S. rates,” said Danske Bank chief analyst Piet Haines Christiansen.

“It is also supported by hopes that the energy supply in is not as bad a situation as feared.”

Stocks edge higher as darker forecasts loom

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Stocks edge higher as darker forecasts loom© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A huge electric stock quotation board is seen inside a building in Tokyo, Japan, December 30, 2022. REUTERS/Issei Kato

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By Nell Mackenzie

(Reuters) -World stocks inched higher, European bond yields dropped and the dollar held firm in light trading on Monday following warnings from the International Monetary Fund’s managing director that a third of the world will fall into recession in 2023.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.04%, just short of an index of global shares, which climbed 0.18%.

The pan-European index climbed 0.8%, retracing some of the nearly 12% it lost in 2022, bludgeoned by central banks’ aggressive monetary policy tightening.

Traders were reluctant to trust early-year starts in stock and bond moves, with many markets closed for a holiday and ahead of a host of economic numbers due this week.

Inflation data from Europe, minutes from the December U.S. Federal Reserve meeting and U.S. labour market numbers were some of the highlights that Danske Bank chief analyst Piet Haines Christiansen said would be worth watching.

“I would be cautious over interpreting any moves this morning,” said Christiansen.

Markets in Britain, Hong Kong, Ireland, Japan, Singapore, Canada and the United States were shut.

Christiansen expected the new year to kick off with a renewed focus on central banks and inflation. Traders would be vigilant for any signs of an approaching recession, he said.

Buoyant stock prices in Europe might be due, he said, to survey results published on Monday, which pointed towards a rebound in optimism among euro zone factory managers.

S&P Global’s final manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) bounced to 47.8 in December from November’s 47.1, matching a preliminary reading but below the 50 mark separating growth from contraction.

“Europe is taking the latest round of PMIs well enough, as the final readings help to confirm the view (hope?) that the worst may be over for the EU bloc’s manufacturers, especially as energy prices recede to the levels of last February,” Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, wrote in emailed comments.

DOLLAR STRUGGLES TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH

Elsewhere, the dollar edged almost 0.2% higher against a basket of major currencies, while the pound and euro fell 0.4% and 0.2% respectively.

“There is an attempt by the to pull higher today but we do see that it is losing a good part of the strength it gained last year,” said Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of forex research at Commerzbank (ETR:).

“After the last Fed meeting, the market was not convinced that the Fed won’t cut rates later in 2023. It’s going to be an interesting year.”

U.S. Treasuries will resume trading on Tuesday after a public holiday on Monday.

German government bond yields on Monday tumbled from their highest levels in more than a decade amid more hawkish signals from the European Central Bank (ECB).

ECB President Christine Lagarde said euro zone wages were growing quicker than earlier thought, and the central bank must prevent this from adding to already-high inflation.

Germany’s 10-year bond yield fell 12 bps to 2.44%, after hitting its highest since 2011 at 2.57% on Friday.

Oil markets were closed but prices in 2023 were set for small gains as a darkening economic backdrop and COVID-19 flare-ups in China threaten demand growth and offset the impact of supply shortfalls caused by sanctions on Russia, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.

The new year is going to be “tougher than the year we leave behind,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Sunday on the CBS Sunday morning news program “Face the Nation.”

“Why? Because the three big economies – the U.S., EU and China – are all slowing down simultaneously,” she said.

Bank of Israel raises key rate, seeks fiscal restraint from new govt

Bank of Israel raises key rate, seeks fiscal restraint from new govt© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The Bank of Israel building is seen in Jerusalem June 16, 2020. REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun

By Steven Scheer and Ari Rabinovitch

JERUSALEM (Reuters) -The Bank of Israel raised its benchmark interest rate by half a point on Monday, and will likely continue its increases a bit more in coming months, saying it seeks to curb inflation running above 5%.

The central bank as expected lifted its key rate to a 14-year high of 3.75% from 3.25%. In April, policymakers began raising the rate from 0.1% and have been aggressive during a front-loading process, but most analysts believe the tightening cycle is close to over.

Bank of Israel Governor Amir Yaron said monetary policy was already “restrictive” but expressed concerns over inflation, even though it is lower than in much of the West. The labour market is tight and the new government is set to spend heavily to meet coalition agreements.

While the central bank’s own economists project the key rate at 4% in a year’s time – meaning there would be just one more quarter-point hike – Yaron could not commit to that peak.

Speaking to reporters, he said the pace of hikes would continue to be data dependent. “We won’t hesitate to raise rates further,” Yaron said, adding he expects inflation to start easing in the second quarter. “I believe that interest rates in general will have to remain at a high level.”

Despite the rate hikes, Israel’s annual inflation rose to a 14-year high of 5.3% in November from 5.1% in October – well above the government’s 1%-3% annual target range and fuelling public anger at spiking living costs.

The central bank’s staff sees inflation at 3% in a year, easing to 2% in 2024.

“We are determined to reduce the inflation rate and to return it to within the target range,” Yaron said.

A new government led by Benjamin Netanyahu, whose coalition partners have made hefty budget demands, took office this week. Yaron cautioned against a spike in the deficit and debt burden.

“It is important that the new government acts with the necessary responsibility with regard to fiscal policy” and on public sector wage agreements, he said. “It is important to remember that the Israeli economy cannot take for granted the high regard from the rating entities and international financial institutions.”

Israel’s economy grew an annualised 1.9% in the third quarter from the second quarter, slower than a 7.4% pace the prior three months.

Growth is expected at 2.8% in 2023, revised down from 3%, and 3.5% in 2024, according to the Bank of Israel’s updated forecast.

Brazil’s Haddad vows to ‘restore’ public accounts

Brazil's Haddad vows to 'restore' public accounts© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Brazil’s former President and presidential candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Sao Paulo Governor candidate Fernando Haddad react at an election night gathering on the day of the Brazilian presidential election run-off, in Sao Paulo, Brazi

BRASILIA (Reuters) -Brazil’s new finance minister, Fernando Haddad, said on Monday he would propose a new fiscal anchor in the first half of this year as leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s team works to “restore” public accounts.

“We are not here for adventures,” he said, seeking to calm market jitters over the return of Lula.

A former mayor of Sao Paulo, Haddad took office with the challenge of presenting a credible fiscal framework after Congress passed a package increasing Brazil’s spending cap to ramp up social expenditures.

In his first speech in office, Haddad said the government would not accept the “absurd” 220 billion-real ($41.19 billion) primary deficit forecast in this year’s budget, indicating it will work to reduce it.

He pledged to fight inflation, promising to send to Congress the proposal for a new fiscal anchor in the first half of the year seeking to ensure public debt sustainability.

But he did not mention Lula’s decision the day before to extend a costly tax exemption on fuels, in what some saw as a striking political setback for the new minister.

Prior to taking office, Haddad had stated that the measure – which has an annual impact of 52.9 billion reais – would not be extended.

Speaking to journalists after the event, he said Lula asked for an extension so that a decision on resuming fuel taxes could be taken once the new board of state-owned oil company Petrobras is installed. The taxes boost federal revenue but harm Lula’s popularity.

A lawyer with a master’s degree in economics and a doctorate in philosophy, Haddad has been viewed with distrust by the market for fear of uncontrolled spending.

He sought to dispel these concerns on Monday, saying the harmonization of fiscal and monetary policy would happen “for sure.” Haddad said he will also try to democratize access to credit and establish a more transparent tax system.

($1 = 5.3416 reais)

Brazil markets tumble on Lula’s first full day in office

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Brazil markets tumble on Lula's first full day in office© Reuters. Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, his wife Rosangela “Janja” da Silva and Chief Raoni walk through the ramp of the Planalto Palace after Lula’s swearing-in ceremony, in Brasilia, Brazil, January 1, 2023. REUTERS/Ricardo Moraes

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By Anthony Boadle

BRASILIA (Reuters) -Brazilian markets delivered a withering verdict on leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s first full day in office on Monday, after he pledged to prioritize social issues and ordered a budget-busting extension to a fuel tax exemption.

Lula’s decision to extend the fuel tax exemption, which will deprive the Treasury of 52.9 billion reais ($9.9 billion) a year in fiscal income, was a stinging rebuke of his finance minister Fernando Haddad, a Workers Party (PT) loyalist who had said it would not be extended.

Haddad, who is seeking to dispel market fears that he might not maintain fiscal discipline, took office on Monday, pledging to control spending. “We are not here for adventures,” he said.

Markets seemed unconvinced.

The real currency lost 1.5% in value against the dollar in afternoon trading, while the benchmark Sao Paulo stock market index ended 3.06% down. Shares of state-run oil company Petrobras retreated nearly 6.45%.

In speeches delivered at his inauguration in Brasilia on Sunday, Lula promised that tackling hunger and poverty would be “the hallmark” of his third presidency after two previous stints running the country from 2003 to 2010.

Financial analysts said the start of Lula’s third presidency was in line with his campaign promises, and looked similar to earlier Workers Party policies that led to a deep recession.

Lula narrowly defeated far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in October, swinging South America’s largest nation back on a left-wing track.

On Monday, Lula instructed ministers to revoke steps to privatize state companies taken by the previous administration, including studies to sell Petrobras, the Post Office and state broadcasting company EBC.

On Sunday, he signed a decree extending an exemption for fuels from federal taxes, a measure passed by his predecessor aimed at lowering their cost in the run-up to the election, but which will deprive the Treasury of 52.9 billion reais ($9.9 billion) a year in fiscal income.

The federal tax exemption for fuels will last one year for diesel and biodiesel and two months for gasoline and ethanol, a decree published in the official gazette showed on Monday.

Gabriel Araujo Gracia, analyst at Guide Investimentos, said Lula’s plans to increase social spending, expand the role of state banks and abolish a constitutionally mandated spending ceiling harked back to the worst days of Workers Party rule.

“The policies remind us of Dilma Rousseff’s government rather than Lula’s,” Gracia said, referring to Lula’s handpicked successor, who was impeached while in office. “Her policies led to Brazil’s worst recession since 1929.”

Lula, who lifted millions of Brazilians from poverty during his first two terms, criticized Bolsonaro for allowing hunger to return to Brazil, and wept during his speech to supporters on Sunday as he described how poverty had increased again.

Allies said Lula’s newfound social conscience was the result of his 580 days in prison, Reuters reported on Sunday.

Lula kicks off his third presidential term after persuading Congress to pass a one-year, 170 billion-reais increased social spending package, in line with his campaign promises.

“The package ended up being bigger than expected, with potential repercussions for public debt sustainability,” Banco BTG Pactual said in a research note.

Lula spent his first day in office meeting with more than a dozen heads of state who attended his inauguration.

The meetings started with the king of Spain, and continued with South American presidents, among them the leftist leaders of Argentina, Chile and Bolivia, as well as representatives from Cuba and Venezuela, and Vice President Wang Qishan of China.

On Twitter, Lula said he had received a letter from Chinese leader Xi Jinping expressing a desire to increase cooperation between the two countries.

“China is our biggest trading partner, and we can further expand relations between our countries,” Lula added.

The new president is also set to attend the wake of Brazilian soccer star Pele, who died on Thursday at 82 after battling colon cancer.

Lula will pay his respects and pay tribute to Pele and his family on Tuesday morning, the president’s office said in a statement.

($1 = 5.3633 reais)

This Could Happen To The Price Of XRP In The Next Few Days

Cryptocurrency 11 hours ago (Jan 02, 2023 11:00AM ET)

This Could Happen To The Price Of XRP In The Next Few Days© Reuters. This Could Happen To The Price Of XRP In The Next Few Days

  • A ton of liquidity has been taken on .
  • XRP is trading hands at $0.3458 after a 2.26% increase in price.
  • The daily RSI line is also sloped positively towards overbought territory.

The well known crypto trader and analyst Michael van de Poppe took to Twitter earlier today to share some of his insights on XRP and what the price of the token could do in the coming days.

XRP / US 4h (Source: TradingView)

According to the post, “a ton of liquidity has been taken on

The post This Could Happen To The Price Of XRP In The Next Few Days appeared first on Coin Edition.

See original on CoinEdition

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